Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Cabo Verde
  • Libya
  • Morocco
  • Djibouti
  • Egypt
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Congo (Kinshasa)
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Rwanda
  • Zambia
  • Senegal
  • Malawi

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $700,203$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{674,132.4}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 124.3)}}\) (asimptote \(674,132.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $18,370$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,907.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 124.2)}}\) (asimptote \(17,907.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $52,573$ on 2020-10-16

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,526$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,171.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 187.6)}}\) (asimptote \(11,171.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $82$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142.0}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 201.4)}}\) (asimptote \(142.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,019$ on 2020-10-16

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $47,845$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{62,248.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 180.7)}}\) (asimptote \(62,248.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $699$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{951.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 175.8)}}\) (asimptote \(951.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,084$ on 2020-10-16

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $167,148$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{409,388.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 226.8)}}\) (asimptote \(409,388.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,818$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,153.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 213.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,153.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $25,341$ on 2020-10-16

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,449$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,336.4}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 69.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,336.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.8}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 58.8)}}\) (asimptote \(59.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16$ on 2020-10-16

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $105,159$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,761.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 97.4)}}\) (asimptote \(101,761.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,099$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,875.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,875.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $971$ on 2020-10-16

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,068$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,258.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 109.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,258.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 74.8)}}\) (asimptote \(85.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31$ on 2020-10-16

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,999$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,465.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 92.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10,465.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $301$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{279.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 97.2)}}\) (asimptote \(279.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $356$ on 2020-10-16

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Rwanda recovered 87%
Zambia recovered 81%
Senegal recovered 70%
Malawi recovered 60%

Rwanda⮸

Population $12,952,218$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,965$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,842.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 150.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,842.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-06-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{39.1}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 98.9)}}\) (asimptote \(39.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $267$ on 2020-10-16

Zambia⮸

Population $18,383,955$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-27 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,659$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,808.7}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 136.9)}}\) (asimptote \(15,808.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $346$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{333.4}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 113.8)}}\) (asimptote \(333.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $414$ on 2020-10-16

Senegal⮸

Population $16,743,927$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,368$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,012.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.1)}}\) (asimptote \(16,012.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $317$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{323.0}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 104.6)}}\) (asimptote \(323.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,347$ on 2020-10-16

Malawi⮸

Population $19,129,952$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,842$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,835.1}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 88.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,835.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $181$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{179.4}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(179.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $926$ on 2020-10-16