Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $700,203$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{674,132.4}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 124.3)}}\) (asimptote \(674,132.4\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $18,370$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,907.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 124.2)}}\) (asimptote \(17,907.9\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $52,573$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,526$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,171.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 187.6)}}\) (asimptote \(11,171.4\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $82$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142.0}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 201.4)}}\) (asimptote \(142.0\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,019$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $47,845$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{62,248.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 180.7)}}\) (asimptote \(62,248.7\))
Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $699$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{951.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 175.8)}}\) (asimptote \(951.3\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,084$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $167,148$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{409,388.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 226.8)}}\) (asimptote \(409,388.4\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,818$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,153.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 213.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,153.1\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $25,341$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,449$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,336.4}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 69.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,336.4\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $61$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59.8}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 58.8)}}\) (asimptote \(59.8\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $105,159$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,761.1}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 97.4)}}\) (asimptote \(101,761.1\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,099$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,875.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,875.7\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $971$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,068$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,258.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 109.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,258.7\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{85.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 74.8)}}\) (asimptote \(85.6\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $31$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,999$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,465.0}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 92.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10,465.0\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $301$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{279.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 97.2)}}\) (asimptote \(279.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $356$ on 2020-10-16